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Technology Of Project
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Base Case
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Preferred Blueprint Scenario
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Smart Growth Principles
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Implementation
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Demographic Projections
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 spacer rule spacer The Need

Base Case

The starting point for the Blueprint process is the "Base Case Study," a projection of how the area would grow if current local government growth and land-use plans are followed through to 2050. Land use and demographic projections show that the six-county region that includes Sacramento, Placer, El Dorado, Yuba, Sutter and Yolo counties will remain an attractive place to live and is likely to grow dramatically. One of the most startling figures to arise from the study is that there will be an estimated 1.7 million more people in the Sacramento Region in 2050 than there were in 2000. As the area grows to over 3.6 million residents, the number of homes will more than double from 713,000 to over 1.5 million.

Is there enough land set aside for development under current general plans to support the new homes, jobs and development forecast for 2050? According to the Base Case Study, the answer is no.

Some Base Case findings:

  • The number of jobs in the region will double from 921,000 in 2000 to 1.9 million in 2050. By comparison, in 1950 the region supported only about 100,000 total jobs.
  • Households with children under age 18 will drop about 20 percent, while families without children (including "empty nesters") will increase by about 10 percent. This trend will affect the type and preferred location of homes.
  • Residents will drive more miles annually and spend more time in their cars, especially during commutes. The average commuter will spend about 160 additional hours annually, or about one week per year, in the car.
  • Growth at the current rate will have significant impact on natural land systems. An estimated 43 percent of vernal pools and oak woodlands will be affected under the Base Case.

The following maps detail how development may impact the region under the base case scenario.

Urban Growth Maps 		 
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The Blueprint project is a joint effort of the
Sacramento Area Council of Governments (SACOG) and Valley Vision.

Funding for the development of the Blueprint Web
site was made possible by a grant from the Great Valley Center.