Base Case

The starting point for Blueprint is the "Base Case Study," a projection of how the area would grow if current local trends continue. The region that includes Sacramento, Placer, El Dorado, Yuba, Sutter and Yolo counties will remain an attractive place to live and will grow dramatically. One of the most startling figures to arise from the study is that there will be an estimated 1.7 million more people in the Sacramento Region in 2050 than there were in 2000. As we grow to more than 3.6 million residents, the number of homes will more than double from 713,000 to over 1.5 million.

Is there enough land set aside to support new homes, jobs and development forecast for 2050? According to the Base Case Study, the answer is "no".

Some Base Case findings:

• The number of jobs in the region will double from 921,000 in 2000 to 1.9 million in 2050. By comparison, in 1950 the region supported only about 100,000 jobs.
• Households with children under age 18 will drop about 20 percent, while families without children (including "empty nesters") will increase by about 10 percent. This trend will affect the type and preferred location of homes.
• Residents will drive more miles annually and spend more time in their cars, especially during commutes. The average household will spend about 30 additional minutes per day in the car.
• Growth at the current rate will have significant impact on natural land systems. An estimated 43 percent of vernal pools and wetlands and 21 percent of oak woodlands will be affected under the Base Case.

The following maps detail how development may affect the region under the base case scenario.